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Year Ender 2019, Part 1

Top Performer

Blondes went to the moon this past year as they did the year before and the year before that. With only 211 335’s and 50 345’s out there, it’s no wonder that these keep shooting up in value year after year. There are still a couple of these left if you’re looking for the best investment of all the ES guitars. Even the blonde 330’s have seen record prices with a two pickup 59 selling for nearly $20K.

Contrary to popular belief, guitar dealers actually talk to one another once in a while. And, to have heard them talk last Summer and Fall,  you would have thought the bottom had fallen out of the market. There was all kinds of moaning and complaining going on. “Nothing is selling.” “Seller are asking stupid prices.” “The are too many Strats on the market…” and so on.

That could be the opening sentence of this year’s market wrap up but I actually copied it from my 2017 post. The more things change, the more they stay the same, I guess. There are still too many Stratocasters on the market and the dealers still complained about nothing selling over the Summer and sellers asking stupid prices. The big difference this year is the stupid prices. Last year it was dot necks trying to reach new highs with $50,000 asking prices for 59 sunbursts. This year it’s 62-64 block necks with asking prices in the high $20K’s to well over $30K. I don’t know of anyone actually getting that much for a 62-64 but the fact that the asks have gone nuts tells me the market is strong. The real world price for a collector grade 62-64 is up nicely into the mid $20K range but anything over $25K is wishful thinking, IMO. Still, that’s about 10% higher than last year and that’s a very nice rise with red PAF guitars leading the way.

If any ES-335 deserves a mention for 2019, it’s the blondes. It’s a pretty rarefied market and it’s up in a big way (again). You could buy a good stop tail blonde three years ago for $65-70,000. I sold 5 this year with prices ranging from $85K for a 60 in very good condition to $120K for a near mint 59. Even blondes with major issues (headstock repair and Bigsby holes) were strong at $30K. It’s a tough market to quantify with so few for sale and so few that have changed hands in the past year. I know of only two sales besides the 5 I sold. It’s my opinion that there is plenty of room for appreciation. They only made 211 of them and they don’t come on the market very often.

I can’t do a year ender without a look at sunburst dot necks. Last year, the market was tested by a lot of sellers and the market spoke and said “slow down”. As with block necks this year, you can ask any price you want but asking prices don’t mean anything. Selling price is the only thing that counts. Dot necks from late 58 and 59 have been strong over the past few years and continue that trend. The interesting development this year is the strength of the early 60 dots-those with the late 59 features. Unless you absolutely must have a 59, an early 60 is the same guitar and will often cost you 20% less. While the preference for big neck 59’s is still dominant, the more manageable “transitional” neck has become very popular and has driven up early 60 335’s over the past year. Expect to pay around $40K for a clean 59 with no issues and a few thousand more for a near mint one. You can still find clean stop tail 60’s for around $30K but don’t snooze. The early ones are going up. The wild card is the unbound 58. Big collectors have to have one to complete the set but players are often scared off by the shallow neck angle. Don’t be. They are wonderful guitars when set up correctly. Finally, the laggard is the 61. The thin neck profile is the issue. 61’s can be unstable, so check the neck for truss rod cracks and distortion. A good 61 is as good as any 335. A bad one is trouble. A good one should cost you around $25K. Note that a late 60 (around A34000 or later) generally has the same neck profile as a 61 and the 61 will cost you a fair bit less. The 60 gets you the long guard and sometimes long magnet PAFs whereas a 61 will almost always have a short guard and short magnet PAFs. Nothing wrong with either of those features. Just make sure the neck is straight and has no hairline crack down the middle.

OK, I’m running long but I do want to mention one other interesting trend. Red dot necks. Red 59’s are too rare to even discuss (there are 6 of them known). Red 60’s are almost in that category with only 21 built. A clean red 60 is approaching $50K (I sold two last year). A red 61 is half that. The reason is simple. Red 61’s are pretty common with over 400 built. So, why spend big bucks on a 60? Yes, the long guard is nice but not $25K nice. It’s the finish. Most red 60 335’s will have the faded watermelon finish. It’s rare, it’s beautiful and you can’t fake it. There aren’t many out there but if you are looking for one let me know and I’ll find it for you.

Block necks, especially red ones with PAFs were stronger this year than they have been in the past. There was considerable resistance at around $20K but that’s in the rearview now. Asking prices have gone nuts and selling prices aren’t too far behind. $25K is still a lot for all but the mint ones but until this year, $25K was in the fat chance category. Sunburst blocks are up as well but they take a bit of a back seat to the red ones.

One Response to “Year Ender 2019, Part 1”

  1. RAB says:

    We do love those blondes! I owned a flamey ‘59 blonde dotneck back in the day, supposedly formerly owned by Elvin Bishop. I couldn’t get used to the feel of the refinished neck so I sold it…would love to have a ‘59 blonde 345 but I’ll stick with my sunburst First Rack for a fraction of the cost!

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