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Bubble, Puppies.

2020 was the year of the block neck. After at least 4 or 5 flat years, folks decided that maybe a dot neck wasn’t the be-all, end-all 335. I would look for a 62 with PAFs but the big 64 neck is a crowd pleaser as well.

Hot smoke and sassafras, it’s 2021 and not a moment too soon. What happens right out of the blocks? Never mind. Let’s do the 335 year ender. 2020 was strange all around. I expected the market to flatten out or even take a big hit but no. Everybody decided to buy a guitar and the asking prices went up. And then they went up some more. But those are asking prices and folks can ask anything they want for any guitar they want. Still, prices for many 335’s are up and some folks are calling it a bubble but I’m not so sure.

The big story is the block necks. Early in 2020, a clean collector grade 62-64 ES-335 was a $20,000-$23,000 guitar. A player stop tail was in the high teens. Now, I’m seeing asking prices creep into the mid $30K range. That’s a crazy big jump but I’m pretty sure nobody is getting that much. I sold a lot of block necks this year and none of them hit $25K. The way I see it, if I can’t get more than $25K for a 62 ES-335, then neither can you without some crazy luck. But make no mistake, block necks are most definitely up after a few years of being flat. That’s a good thing mostly. The problem is the standoff that occurs when individual sellers start seeing big asks from others and figure that must be what they’re worth and they start asking high prices as well. That makes it hard for dealers like me to source good examples at a reasonable wholesale price. If I have to pay big bucks, the you have to pay bigger bucks. Sorry, that’s just business.

What makes it even more difficult is he fact that folks seem to feel that any 335 from 62-64 has about the same value. 64’s are easier to sell because of the bigger neck but a 62 with PAFs is worth more. Reds are easier to sell but sunbursts are rarer. A sunburst 64 is a wonderful guitar but man, they are not quick sellers. Thanks, Eric. Bigsby versions have crept up well beyond the $15K-$16K we saw last year. The Bigsby asks are approaching, and in some cases, surpassing $20K. That’s also a big jump.

A bunch of overpriced block necks does not, however, a bubble make. I pay a lot of attention to the guitars that are listed and the overpriced examples are sitting and that, to me, is good. When they start selling at these currently inflated prices, then I’ll call it a bubble. Right now, it’s just optimism. Or greed. I’ll keep trying to sell them at fair prices but if I can’t get them at reasonable prices, I will eventually have to give in to the would be bubble and pay more. That means you pay more too. I’d rather you didn’t.

What about the dot necks? Beyond that, where are the dot necks? As of today, I know of two 58’s and two 59’s on the market. Mostly, the dots haven’t moved much but because they’ve gotten so hard to source, the prices are poised to rise. There are 61 dots out there and they have taken a similar jump in asking prices to the block necks. Last year, a collector grade stop tail 61 was a $25K guitar. Now, $30K is a typical ask and I’ve seen more than one break $35K (ask). In my mind, if a 61 stop is a $30K guitar, then a $50K ’59 isn’t far off. The two on the market now (one is mine) are just over $40K but neither is at the top of the range due to condition. Both are collector grade but neither is stunningly clean. Watch this space. Dots and blondes aren’t done running up.

Finally, let’s take a quick look at 65-69 335’s. Big neck 65’s are way up but they were undervalued in the past. I have no problem seeing them approach $15K but once the wide nut is gone, so is the value. Yes, a 65 will likely have better pickups than a 69 but I’ve seen plenty of 68’s with pre T tops. To me, a late 65, 66, 67 and 68 are pretty much the same. 69’s? Not so much. If you buy a 69, try to find one with the long neck tenon. Most don’t have it. Also, if there’s no dot in the “i” in the Gibson logo and the seller tells you it’s a 65, 66, 67 or 68, run away. 99.9% of the time, it isn’t. Like 62-64 blocks, asking prices on narrow nut 65’s through 69’s are way up. They are approaching $10K but that, I believe, is just wishful thinking. There are tons of them out there and plenty of well priced examples in the $6K-$7500 range. I still don’t see 65-69’s as investments but, then again, I don’t generally buy or sell 65-69 335’s. Especially not at the current asking prices.

We’ll look at 345’s and 355’s in my next post.

Where did all the dot necks go? Not long ago, I would have 8 to 10 of them in stock at all times. Now I’m lucky if I have 4 of them. Do the collectors have all of them by now? I sure hope not/.

3 Responses to “Bubble, Puppies.”

  1. RAB says:

    Charlie, interesting perspective as always! I’ve owned and played way more block neck 335s than dots but did have a nice blond ‘59 dot that reputably belonged to Elvin Bishop. Flame grained top too! A 1958-59 dot is priced considerably above the budget of many players including me. I could raise the funds by liquidating some of my small guitar collection but why? My ‘59 First Rack 345 is as good a player and 95% as good sounding as a ‘59 335. And for considerably less coin! And in terms of the late 1960’s 335s Larry Carlton used to play a dot, can afford to play any 335 he wants but chooses to play a ‘68. With a misplaced stop tailpiece to boot! But it do sound good! Hmmm…must be those hands, eh?

  2. RAB says:

    Don’t forget about 1960s Gibson-made Epiphone ES models! A great value, equivalent in quality and assembled on the same Kalamazoo production line as their Gibson brethren! Here’s my ‘62 Epi Riviera E360TD…

  3. Nelson Checkoway says:

    Thanks for the trend report as always, Charlie. Just wanted also to pass along a new peeve alert: I’ve always liked the opportunity to look up a model on Reverb.com and filter for sold listings to see past examples as comps as well as examine pricing trends. Recently learned through trial and error that Reverb has apparently deleted from view all past sales beyond 12 months — the “sold” search filter used to go back about 6 years. Along with a hike in commission %, it’s just another insult in the Etsy/Reverb era!

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