A Look Back at 2011
Saturday, December 31st, 2011I don’t actually have a topic that is New Years related but I thought this might be a good time to take a look at the vintage market with regard to ES 335, 345 and 355s. I really can’t look ahead since I don’t have a crystal ball so, assuming the Mayans are wrong and the world doesn’t end in 2012, we’ll all have to be content to look at the market over the past year. You sure can’t tell anything from the majority of the dealers. When I go through the 335s on Gbase, I have to laugh. If you looked at the guitars that were listed at this time last year and the ones that are listed today, I would guess that at least half of them are still for sale. In the fourth quarter, the market for stop tail 335s got very strong. The market for Bigsbys? Not so much. But the term strong is relative. When I see 62-64 block necks both on Gbase and Ebay north of $30,000, I understand why none of them sell. Unless the guitar is dead mint, that’s not a reasonable price. Dot necks have held their value better with 59’s leading the way, of course. But, the average dot neck has crept below $20,000. The one’s that are fetching the lower prices are usually 60, 61 and 62’s. The 58 and 59’s are doing somewhat better. My sales range this year for 1958-1964 ES-335s (excluding refins, repairs and exotic colors) is $9000 to $25,000. Average no issue stoptail block was around $16K. Average Bigsby/studs version was around $12,000. I only sold perhaps 6 or 7 dot necks this year and no 58s and only one 59, so my average will be skewed downward. But I can tell you this, the stoptail dot necks, while not flying out of the dealers are still a very desirable guitar. I believe the only reason they are sitting unsold is that the owners are asking 2007 prices. The old cliche that says an item is worth what someone will pay still holds true and I’m sure some very high dollar 335’s changed hands this year. But I think we have a face a basic truth about the economics of 2011: The 1% with all the money is going to spend whatever it takes to get whatever they want. The players and the small collectors are going to look for the deals. That’s pretty much how it went for me. On the ES-345 front, the market was softer and the bargains have been fast and furious. A PAF equipped ’60 for under $9K? A stoptail near mint 64 for under $9500? These are reasonable post bubble prices that I got for 345s. I prefer not to name names but c’mon $29,999 for a red ’63 ES-345? Go check Gbase. This years crop of 1959-1964 ES-345s ranged from $6500 for a Bigsby/stud ’64 to $18,000 for a near mint ’60 stop. We’ll leave the red 59 and the blondie out of the equation. I didn’t sell a whole lot of 355s this year-maybe 8? The mono 355s are very strong-they are out the door sometimes before I even get them. The foreign market is nuts for 355’s. I had one go to Japan, another to Australia, one to the UK and another to Germany. This is probably a good thing since I don’t have to worry that the US Government is going to confiscate them due to the use of Brazilian rosewood. The range for 355’s this year was $6500 to $15,000. The top seller was a mono 59 in excellent condition. My intent here is to keep you from spending more than you have to in order to get the guitar you want. be patient and when the right one comes along at the right price, don’t give it too much thought because someone else is going to snag it from under you. Whether you buy from me or from someone else, you will be a lot happier knowing the price you paid is what the guitar is worth not someones idea of what it was worth 5 years ago. Oh, and Happy New Year and thanks to all 35,624 of you for reading what I write and helping me to enjoy another year of guitar buying, selling, playing and just yakking about them.