The Gibson ES-335

This photo is not totally relevant to the content but it’s such a cool picture, I thought I would show it again. I don’t think the guitars in this photo will go down in value.

Every year, in January, I write a year end post giving you my take on the market over the past year. Telling you where the market has been is easy. telling you where it’s going is something I’ve avoided and with good reason. Nobody can predict the future. If I had a crystal ball, I’d probably be living on a beach on my private island somewhere warm. I do not. So, in these difficult times, why would I go out on a limb and predict where the vintage guitar market is going? Because you asked. I’ve had a lot of emails and phone calls over the past month or so and that seems to be the compelling question. The economy is on hold. Is the market going to tank? I never took an economics course. I never took a business course. I don’t know Keynes from Fibonacci. I’m going to hypothesize based on what I do for a living.

I don’t know. That’s the simple answer, so take everything that follows as simple logic from the inside. I’m selling a lot of guitars. I dropped some prices-not so much because I think the market is in trouble but because I have no room for the gear. I moved out of my shop last month because my lease wasn’t renewed and I have to put my inventory somewhere. I will say that the current social distancing and the resultant diminished economy is going to be with us for a while yet. I don’t expect to open a new retail space for months going forward. But most of my business has always been online and that appears pretty healthy.

There are at least two important factors driving the current guitar market. One, folks are stuck at home with nothing to do and, for the guitar obsessed (like me), searching the internet for a “new” guitar is a fun, time consuming activity. (So are jigsaw puzzles but c’mon, what would you rather get delivered to your house?) Two, a lot of folks are out of work but even with that, the unemployment rate is “only” at 10%. Not a good recipe for a robust market but not lethal blow either. There will be folks who have to sell one or more of their guitars in order to meet their financial obligations (and to eat). But, I think that, in general, these aren’t the folks who were buying vintage and collector grade stuff in the first place. I believe the collector grade guitars will remain strong but will likely level off somewhat during the next few months. There will likely be some guitars hitting the market put there by sellers who really need to generate some cash. But they won’t list them at bargain basement prices. That’s human nature. This market is not one to tank over night. Look at 2008.

2008 is not the same as now; in many ways, it was worse. Yes, unemployment is worse now but long term prospects are better. But even as the economy tanked, the stock market sank and the housing market sagged, the guitar market held on for quite a few months before it started a relatively slow decline. That decline lasted a very long time and eventually took as much as 40% off the market but in 2008, that market was a bubble. The market today is the result of a slow, steady rise that, in many cases, still hasn’t reached 2008 levels.

I could go on for pages but I think I’ll just lay out my thoughts. The player market will, I think, drop. Possibly significantly. The high end market will level off. Because so many guitars are currently priced way ahead of the market (read as “overpriced”), the folks who need to sell will eventually cut prices probably down to where they should be. The one great truth in this business is that everybody (yes, everybody) thinks their guitar is worth more than it is. Does sitting on the market for months or even years deter those sellers? Nope. Not until they need to sell (for any reason-not just starvation).

So, if my opinion means anything, don’t worry about your guitars. Play them. If you’re in the market to buy, make offers that are fair and reasonable. If I’m wrong and the market tanks, you can tell me I’m an idiot but go back to paragraph two. Sentence one. That tells you everything you need to know.

This is our dog, Zoubi. She doesn’t know there’s a pandemic out there. She just knows I’m home all the time and that means more treats for doggies.

Watch some old episodes of “Shindig” or “Hullabaloo” from the mid 60’s. Why aren’t the Hermits’ guitars plugged in? Because there aren’t any amps…it was all lip synched).

Well, this is week number 4 that I’ve been conscientiously social distancing. A few trips to my shop to finish clearing out before my lease expires at the end of the month and one big trip to the local Stop and Shop for groceries and that’s about the extent of my travels. Binge watched “Ozark” and “Unorthodox” and am working on the Aussie quasi soap opera “A Place Called Home”. Oh, and there are guitars here. What to do.

Play. Just sit down and don’t just noodle the stuff you always play. Go to You Tube and learn a new song. Download some blues jams and try to break out of your old habits (I really need to do this). Or just practice your scales and picking. Learn to finger pick if you don’t already do it. Learn alternate tunings (which I’ve never really done other than drop D). For me, I’ve never been able to master any Steely Dan, so I’m going to try to learn a few of my old favorites. My up/down picking can always use a little more practice (I’ve got 55 years of bad habits-I only took lessons for 6 months when I was 11). You a blues player? Play some Bluegrass. A rocker? Learn some country licks. Put aside some time every day to play. I’m lucky to have a space where I can play and not wake anybody up. Play loud-just for fun. If you play sitting down, stand up. If you play standing, sit down. Mix it up. Play along with a favorite song and imagine you’re a rock star. You know you want to-even old guys like me never lose the dream.

Social Media. Post some of your favorite guitars on social media. Sharing your gear with others is a good way to make some new friends. OK, there’s a few douchebags out there who will tell you that your 66 is really a 69 or that the neck pickup looks like a t-top but mostly, everybody is nice. Go to You Tube and look for old footage of your favorite band from your favorite decade. I spent a couple hours watching old “Shindig”, “Hullabaloo” and “Where the Action Is” episodes. For anybody under 60, those were after school American Bandstand type programming with go-go dancers and big pop stars mostly lip synching their hits in black and white (man, I feel old). They aired from around mid 64 until late 66 or early 67. Watch some music documentaries. Ron Howard’s “Eight Days a Week” is wonderful. “The Wrecking Crew” is worth watching as well and there are lots of others.

Maintenance. Change your strings for crying out loud. What’s it been, six months? A year? And oil the fingerboard while you’re at it. Your guitar will thank you. Lube the tuners-nobody ever does this and spray the pots with some De-ox-it. How about you go and clean some of the gunk off your guitars as well. If you’re a gigging musician, you aren’t gigging at the moment and you’ve sweated all over your guitar for long enough. Virtuoso Cleaner is a good product. I’m sure you can order it online. Just let the box sit in the garage for a day or two or open it with your gloves on. This virus knows where you live and will wait you out.

Finally, go and buy yourself a “new” guitar or amp. You know it and I know that nothing makes you feel better than a new piece of gear. I’ve sold an astonishing number of vintage guitars and amps in the last few weeks and while everyone seems to be crying gloom and doom for the vintage market, some folks are taking advantage of that by making offers and getting some deals. A new amp will make you happy and not cost you an arm and probably both legs. I just bought a 70 Marshall JMP 50 because my 55 Twin wasn’t loud enough. Can’t afford vintage? I also bought a 3 Monkeys “Virgil” (best boutique amp out there). Or get an old Supro. A few hundred bucks for a whole new experience.

There’s lots to do at home. Just stay there until this is over. Somebody’s life depends on it. Maybe even yours.

Bored after a few weeks of social distancing? Buy yourself some “new” gear. Here’s a 69 335 in factory black. It will make you feel much better about being cooped up in your tiny apartment or your manor house.