Year Ender Part 1 2024
Every year in the month of January (or February), I write a year end review of the vintage ES-335/345/355 market. This year is no different except that it really is different. After the huge runup in values across the board that occurred during Covid, it was clear (to me, anyway) that it couldn’t be sustained. 2020 and 2021 saw values rise as much as 40% for some years and models. Others rose more like 20% but that is still a very big jump. It had to end. If we were lucky, it would simply have leveled off and prices would settle at their Covid highs. That really isn’t the case. The problem is twofold. Sellers (including many dealers) think that the Covid “bump” is simply continuing with prices rising at the rate of the 2020-2022 years. So, asking prices are higher than ever. But selling prices aren’t. The market has slowed to a virtual crawl because sellers won’t acknowledge that the bull has left the building. Prices are still high but they should be about where they were at the end of the pandemic. We’re all guilty of “ambitious” pricing but some of us have realized that those unrealistic asks just slow the market down. I’ve cut prices in the past few months and things have picked up for me.
When asking prices are unrealistically high, sales lag. That’s simple logic, not economics. As a dealer, if I have to pay inflated prices, then I have to charge even more inflated prices to make a profit. So, I stop buying unless I can negotiate a deal that leaves me some room to make a buck. That happens pretty frequently and so I have fresh inventory. But these massively overpriced guitars are sitting unsold and they will remain unsold until the sellers start wising up and seeing that the market has leveled off. I would even say that some models have dropped a few percentage points since the end of Covid. Let’s look at 335’s in this part one of this past year’s post.
2024 was the “Year of the 59”. Everything 59 seems to have held onto its Covid era gains and continues to rise although not at the pace set during Covid. 59 sunburst 335’s, at the high end, have cracked the $90,000 mark. A pre Covid stop tail, all original ’59 in excellent condition was around $45,000. So, in 5 years or so, the value has doubled. Very impressive. Bound late 58’s are not at those levels (even though they are nearly identical). Top dollar for a bound 58 is in the $80,000 range. Blondes are a lot harder to quantify since so few have been sold recently and so few are on the market. I recently acquired a close to mint stop tail 59 blonde. It was the first one to hit the market since 2021 that I’m aware of. Typically blondes are generally considered to be worth double what a sunburst is worth. I’m not sure that’s entirely true any longer. The 2021 sale (also excellent) fetched $137,500. I have mine priced at $165,000. That’s a nice increase but nowhere near the rise seen in 59 sunbursts based on percentage.
The rest of the dot necks (60 through early 62) went way up from 2020 until 2023 but are now perhaps the most ambitious of all. A 60 is not a 59. The last one I had was priced in the mid $60’s and it sold and I was happy to get that. I’m seeing asking prices rivaling 59 asks. Mid 70k’s is awfully high if my opinion counts for anything. When I say a 60 isn’t a 59, somebody is going to argue (correctly) that a 60 kind of is a 59 in that an early 60 is identical to a late 59. Absolutely true but that’s not what I mean. I’m talking perception here. A collector (and many players) simply want a 59 and nothing else will do. That means 59 serial and 58/59 FON. A 60 serial with a 59 FON will command a premium over a 60 FON but, in my opinion, it’s still a 60. Not fair? Maybe. But reality often isn’t fair. 61 ES-335’s are a similar story only worse. 61’s (and early dot neck 62’s) are the sleeper dot neck largely due to the not too popular “blade” neck. It is prone to issues and not comfortable for a lot of players. But it’s by far the least expensive dot neck and that keeps the market hopping. But really, $50K to well over $60K is not where this market is. Don’t agree? I recently (in November 2024) took a near mint 61 ES-335 with tags in trade. I listed in at a reasonable $42,000. It sat. And it sat. It finally sold for $39K which I believe was a very fair price and not a fire sale. Any guitar is worth what the buyers will pay and they simply aren’t going to spend $60,000 or even $50,000 for a 61-62 ES-335. You can take that to the bank but then again, you can’t because it hasn’t sold.
That leaves us looking at the 62-64 block neck market. This, as last year and the year before and the year before that, red ones sell quickly and sunbursts don’t. I love red guitars and I certainly understand the attraction. The Clapton connection doesn’t hurt either even if some of the boomers are starting to age out of the market (not me, of course). Once again, neck profile drives the market so 62’s and early 63’s with the slim neck are slower sellers than the big neck late 63’s, 64’s and even early 65’s. If your 62 or 63 has PAFs, it will sell more quickly no matter what finish it has. 64’s rarely have PAFs but they do fly out the door. The late 63/64 (and early 65) neck is relatively slim at the first fret (often as small as .81″) but they have much more shoulder than earlier versions and that makes them feel quite a bit larger. It is no wonder that the 63-64 neck is considered to be the best of the Gibson necks. I’m still a 58-59 guy but I get the attraction of the 63-64. Prices for 64’s have pushed up past $40K for clean red stop tails with no issues. Sunbursts are still valued the same but are much harder to sell so a price reduction might be in order if you want to sell one quickly. There are an awful lot of Bigsby 64’s (most with the “Custom Made” plaque over the stud bushings. They tend to fall into the mid to upper $20’s. They are rather a bargain if you don’t mind the Bigsby or the “snake bite”. If you can find a Mickey Mouse ear 63 with PAFs and the big neck, buy it. It’s a rare combination that is really appealing. I’ve only had one. Like the dot necks, the market has gotten ahead of itself so if your 62-64 doesn’t sell quickly, you probably have it priced too high. That’s pretty much true of any popular model. There are plenty of buyers…for the right price.
Economics and Guitar Acquisition Syndrome collide!
Or, put another way, logic vs emotion! ☺️
It was impossible to figure out what stuff is actually worth for awhile. . I can’t believe what dealers were asking for ” player grade” strats and teles. Routed refinished rewound etc. I hope nobody paid the 30k price tags. They need to get a new term instead of “player grade”.