Standoff (Again)
It happens every couple of years-usually after a strong runup in prices. Sellers (dealers too) think the vintage market will continue to climb long after it has reached its peak. I don’t think for a minute that I can predict a market top (I’d be rich if I could) but I can see a market that has flattened out simply by looking at the number of sales that I make. I pay a lot of attention to that and to which guitars are selling (and which guitars are not). The huge runup that occurred during Covid is long over but prices have continued to rise while sales have not. I’ve been cutting prices on certain guitars fairly aggressively and some are selling but many are not even when they are 10 to 15% below the competition. That is usually the result of a lack of trust among buyers. They simply don’t believe the particular guitar they are after could possibly be that much money and, in large part, they are correct. Asking prices on many of the most desirable guitars have doubled in the past 5 to 6 years. Sales, however, aren’t even close to the level that occurred during Covid. Lots of reasons for that, not the least of which is there wasn’t much to do when you are stuck indoors for months on end. Covid ended (well it didn’t end but the restrictions did) and the guitar market somehow missed it. Asking prices have kept rising and many have reached absurd levels. Examples? You want examples? I’ve got ’em.
Before Covid, I could expect to get $25,000 for a 1961 ES-335 is all original 9/10 condition. My spreadsheet shows I sold two 61’s in 2020 (I don’t sell that many 61’s but it’s a good example). A red stop tail in 9-/10 condition sold for $23,000. A near mint red stop tail sold for $32,000. At the end of Covid, I sold a few more-a near mint stop tail for $39,900 and a museum grade, long guard early 61 for $47K. Let’s use the near mint ones as the best examples. A rise from 32,000 to around $40,000 is a pretty good run for a two and a half year period. That’s 25% if you’re doing the math. Today, I’m looking at prices for near mint/excellent stop tail 61’s. A month ago, the highest was $68,000 which is around another 25% higher than the end of Covid. The next highest was $58,000. Then there’s another at $55K, another at $54K and one at $52,500. Now, I don’t have a 61 right now but I sold one for $40,000 less than 6 months ago. I’ve never gotten more than $40,000 for a 61 unless it had a long guard.
Here’s a nice 60 ES-345. These have gotten out of control too. Great guitars but $56K? Really?
Another great example is a 60 ES-345. Before Covid, I sold one for $18,000. During Covid, I sold one in similar condition for $24,000. Prices on Reverb today? One for $56,000, another for $45,000, another for $37,400. I don’t think the value of a 60 ES-345 has run up 50% since Covid. But wait a minute…don’t I have one ( a Bigsby no less) listed for $37,500? I do and it requires some explanation. It’s a one off Custom (one of a kind) built in 59 (59 FON) and shipped in January 60. If it wasn’t the only mono, no Varitone ES-345 I’ve ever seen, it would be more like $28,000. I’ve priced it like a 335 because it is a 335 with a 345 label and gold hardware. What makes a 345 a 345 is the Varitone and the stereo circuit. Gibson called it a 345 (they could charge more) but this one is a true custom and has aspects of 335, 345 and 355. I just felt I had to explain why mine was a high priced as it is. A 60 335 is currently a lot more than $37,500. But I digress…
The larger point here is that the market has stalled because so many sellers are asking way more than the buyers are willing to spend and until prices moderate, that will continue. What will cause prices to moderate is anybody’s guess. I’ve been steadily lowering prices on all but the highest grade collector guitars-those are still selling. The consignments are priced by the owners. Guitars are still selling but not like they should be. Everybody needs to take breath and read the tea leaves. Vintage guitars are (and have been for some time) a great investment. You don’t make any money having them sit on Reverb or elsewhere with a price that nobody will pay. There are no billionaire suckers on the sidelines waiting for exactly what you are selling-largely because billionaires are more careful with their money than just about anyone. That has a lot to do with how they manage to become billionaires.
Are bursts immune to the ups and downs of the vintage market? It sure looks that way. Even in 2008, when just about everything from watches to houses to guitars took a dive, bursts held on better than everything else. This “double 0” sold last year for a lot of money. I’ll bet it’s worth another 15% today. This is where the billionaires play.
Charlie, informative and educational as always! Buy and play the guitar that calls your name y’all! Happy Holidays, best, RAB
Thank you for this article. I recently inherited a 1961 ES-335 in excellent condition, and values I see online are all over the place between 25k and 60k making it hard to gauge the actual value of mine.
Any guitar that hasn’t sold after a month or two on the market is probably overpriced (unless it’s crazy rare and the market is minuscule).
A more common but very desirable guitar like a 58-64 335 won’t sit unsold for long if priced properly. Nothing wrong with an “ambitious” asking price. Just be prepared to wait or to negotiate.