Correction?
If the market starts moving in the wrong direction, then a guitar like a 59 ES-335 is your best bet. Look for guitars that are easy to sell and are wildly popular. If you can afford a burst, then that might be the ideal purchase for right now.
“What goes up, must come down…” So said (and wrote) the recently deceased David Clayton-Thomas of version 2 of Blood Sweat and Tears. Similarly, the vintage guitar community has spoken those same words. Prices have become too high. This, along with worries about the overall economy has caused the vintage market to slow to a crawl. We’ve seen this before but not in this manner. In 2008, the bottom simply fell out pretty much all at once. I hadn’t been in the business of selling guitars for very long at that time-in fact OK Guitars as it exists today didn’t debut until 2010. For me, in 2008, buying and selling guitars was just a fun hobby so it hardly affected me. At that time my usual inventory was two or three guitars. Now, it’s 20 or 30 times as many and a bunch of amps as well.
What is a correction? In stock market jargon, it’s a drop of at least 10% and no more than 20%. In 2008, some guitars lost as much as 40% seemingly overnight (but it wasn’t really that quick…it just seemed that way. During the Covid pandemic, the vintage market went crazy. Sales nearly doubled for me and priced climbed 20% in a single year (and then another 10% the next year). The problem, as I see it, is that sellers thought that kind of appreciation was just going to continue going forward. But 10% appreciation is not sustainable even with the inflation that was occurring for everyday items like food and gasoline. This has happened before. I’ve written a few posts about a market “standoff” where the sellers dig their heels in at a high price and the buyers decide the prices are too high and they stay away.
The first symptom of this slow market standoff is increased trade deals. As far back as a year ago, I noticed that were far fewer cash deals and many more partial trade deals. Then full trade deals began to dominate-perhaps last fall-specifically in September. It’s always slow in the summer but in 2025, the expected seasonal increase in business for guitars simply didn’t happen. Since then, the market has remained sluggish with most deals having a trade element. I don’t mind trades but I’m very specific about what guitars I will take in trade. My rule has always been – don’t take a guitar that’s hard to sell for a guitar that’s easy to sell. So, I won’t take an ES-340 for an ES-335. Or a Jaguar for a Stratocaster. How does this end? Good question and if I knew the answer, I’d probably be rich by now. Here’s what I think might happen going forward:
Prices will begin to trickle downward-perhaps 5% to test the market and if that doesn’t get the market moving, then the dealers will take the lead. Dealers generally make their living only from sales of guitars and other gear. Most vintage dealers don’t do it as a side hustle. The dealers will lead the market correction. Individual sellers always believe their guitars are worth more than they are, regardless of the state of the guitar market. Dealers have to be more realistic. Desirable vintage guitars are still selling-especially mint and near mint examples and especially at the high end. Well heeled collectors are less concerned about high prices but they are often savvy investors and they know that the market for highly desirable guitars plays by its own set of rules. The burst market proves the point. The burst market has continued to rise while much of the rest of the market has stagnated.
Should you be concerned? I don’t think so. You won’t be happy taking less money for your guitar but you will be happy spending less on your next one. Also, I’m not an oracle (or an economist). I can’t predict the vintage market any better than you can. I’m pretty tuned in to the 335 market. I know that if 335’s are slow, then much of the rest of the market is predictably worse. Fortunately, 335’s are still relatively strong-especially 58, 59 and 64’s. Anything from Gibson with a 59 serial number will generally move with relative ease. That’s good news for me and good news for you going forward. Do your research. There are some excellent deals out there if you look hard enough. More advice? Buy what you really like and want to play. If you love love love your “new” guitar, you will quickly forget what you paid for it. This isn’t the time for pure investments but if this correction actually occurs (we’re not there yet) that time might be on the horizon. New buyers are entering the vintage market. My typical buyer used to be a guy in his 60’s. Now (and for some time now) the average age of my buyers is around 40. But that’s another post.
If you’re looking to trade for that 335, this one isn’t going to get you very far (not with me anyway). In a correcting market, trades are often in the mix. An RD Artist is not an easy sell so it might make sense to hang on to that one and trade something else.
Definitely agree that dealers can and should lead the way with pricing. They are technically the experts and know the market better than anyone…I did have a question that relates to supply: how does the market these days compare with years past for supply of top tier guitars like 1959 335’s and Bursts? What I’ve noticed in the vintage wine market is that whenever there’s a big price run up more people want to get in the game and sell things that are now selling for more than what the collector thinks its worth. They are then ok to part with some things they hadn’t considered selling before…has that happened with top guitars where with the Covid uptick more people decided they’d sell at that price leading to more guitars on the market? Of course, when there’s more supply we know what happens…is that happening now where there are more of these available than 10+ years ago or any time? Imagine the internet helps things become more available and more easy to try and sell than decades past.
Interesting and helpful article.
I guess I’ll play it safe and carefully guard my investments in Beanie Babies, Tiny Tim 8-tracks, and Charlton comic books.
One must be savvy in uncertain times.
“If you love love love your “new” guitar, you will quickly forget what you paid for it.”
Aye, spot on.